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📒The Black Swan Second Edition ✍ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
📝The Black Swan Second Edition Book Synopsis : The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : A slipcased hardback edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's bestselling masterpiece, with the original first Penguin edition artwork.What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Mercedes Lackey
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Raphael Sabatini
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis – a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis’ past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.
📒Stalking The Black Swan ✍ Kenneth A. Posner
📝Stalking the Black Swan Book Synopsis : Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard--many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal--our computers and our minds--Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
📒Black Swan Green ✍ David Mitchell
📝Black Swan Green Book Synopsis : The dazzling novel from critically-acclaimed David Mitchell. Shortlisted for the 2006 Costa Novel Award Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize 2006 January, 1982. Thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor - covert stammerer and reluctant poet - anticipates a stultifying year in his backwater English village. But he hasn't reckoned with bullies, simmering family discord, the Falklands War, a threatened gypsy invasion and those mysterious entities known as girls. Charting thirteen months in the black hole between childhood and adolescence, this is a captivating novel, wry, painful and vibrant with the stuff of life.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Anne Batterson
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : Set against a spontaneous cross-country road trip following the migrating birds, this passionate, lyrical memoir is one woman's reflections on midlife, her important personal relationships, her kaleidoscopic past, and her uncertain future. To fifty-six-year-old Anne Batterson, a woman whose life has been filled with adventure -- as a commercial pilot, an international skydiving champion, a trekking guide in Nepal -- her husband's decision to retire felt like a death sentence. Yearning for some way to reconcile herself to the future that was rapidly unfolding before her, she packed up her VW camper and hit the road with maps, bird guides, and little else except the desire to follow the fall migration and the bone-deep hunch that birds had something important to teach her. In this beautifully written narrative of that extraordinary trip, Batterson writes movingly not only about her experiences with the birds but also about the people she loves, has lost, and connects with along the way. Events from the present trigger vivid stories from the past. In the chapter "The Journey Within the Journey," a long, lonely night in a deserted campground in Virginia conjures up the ghosts of a desperate solo road trip she made when she was twenty-one. A towering cumulus cloud in Illinois brings back a breathtaking free fall into a similar cloud in "My Time as a Bird." An encounter with a great blue heron summons a compelling account of her mother's last afternoon in the world. "Bears in the Woods" describes a run-in with two Deliverance-type men in West Virginia, which brings back the murder of a dear friend in the woods of Connecticut. By the end of the journey, the ghosts of the past, like the author herself, have become part of a more fluid, more spiritual reality -- wild and spare and elegant and timeless -- one that is always out there, "quickening on the far side of reality." A unique mix of memoir and nature writing, The Black Swan is a charming story of a woman's odyssey.
📝Black Gold Black Swans The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy Book Synopsis : The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that constitutes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. These models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this historical analysis, the study raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, discussing methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Thomas Mann
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : Thomas Mann's bold and disturbing novella, written in 1952, is the feminine counterpart of his masterpiece Death in Venice. Written from the point of view of a woman in what we might now call mid-life crisis, The Black Swan evinces Mann's mastery of psychological analysis and his compelling interest in the intersection of the physical and the spiritual in human behavior. It is startlingly relevant to current discussions of the politics of the body, male inscriptions of the feminine, and discourse about and of women. The new introduction places this dramatic novella in the context of contemporary feminist and literary concerns, bringing it to the attention of a new generation of readers.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Wendy E. Nunan
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : Descendants of Edward Swan also know by the name Hornsby. He was transported to Australia as a convict in 1818. His wife Mary Ann and children arrived there in 1823. The family settled in the Illawarra district.
📒The Art Of Credit Derivatives ✍ Joao Garcia
📝The Art of Credit Derivatives Book Synopsis : Credit derivatives have been instrumental in the recent increase in securitization activity. The complex nature and the size of the market have given rise to very complex counterparty credit risks. The Lehman failure has shown that these issues can paralyse the financial markets, and the need for detailed understanding has never been greater. The Art of Credit Derivatives shows practitioners how to put a framework in place which will support the securitization activity. By showing the models that support this activity and linking them with very practical examples, the authors show why a mind-shift within the quant community is needed - a move from simple modeling to a more hands on mindset where the modeler understands the trading implicitly. The book has been written in five parts, covering the modeling framework; single name corporate credit derivatives; multi name corporate credit derivatives; asset backed securities and dynamic credit portfolio management. Coverage includes: groundbreaking solutions to the inherent risks associated with investing in securitization instruments how to use the standardized credit indices as the most appropriate instruments in price discovery processes and why these indices are the essential tools for short term credit portfolio management why the dynamics of systemic correlation and the standardised credit indices are linked with leverage, and consequently the implications for liquidity and solvability of financial institutions how Lévy processes and long term memory processes are related to the understanding of economic activity why regulatory capital should be portfolio dependant and how to use stress tests and scenario analysis to model this how to put structured products in a mark-to market-environment, increasing transparency for accounting and compliance. This book will be invaluable reading for Credit Analysts, Quantitative Analysts, Credit Portfolio Managers, Academics and anyone interested in these complex yet important markets.
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis :
📒The Black Swan ✍ Albert Spavins
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : The Black Swan is a childrens' book for our times. I deals with the sad reality of human impact on the environment...not only does it make us face up to that impact...it gives hope for change. The message is the moral.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Tinnean
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : Gabe Granger gathers intelligence for George Washington, even after he’s bitten by a vampyre in the service of the British. Remember Littlebury, his longtime friend, stays with him as his black swan, keeping him safe from sunlight and getting messages to General Washington. After the war ends, they continue working for the fledgling government through one conflict after another. When Gabe loses Remember at the Battle of Gettysburg, he’s ready to give up, but his country still needs his services. And there are many black swans for him to choose from. None are any more fortunate than Remember, and one by one they’re killed in various wars. All Noah Poynter wants is to be a black swan, and he’s devastated when his pop tells him he’s just a normal. In spite of everything, Gabe and Noah become friends. Is there any hope for the two of them?
📒The Black Swan ✍ Celia Bridle
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : A black swan escapes from a cage and flies away to alight at a village by a lake. The villagers there believe that birds are harbingers of good fortune, and each year they build nests beside the lake to lure them. They ask the swan to stay and incubate an egg which was found in one of the nests.
📒The Black Swan ✍ Philippa Carr
📝The Black Swan Book Synopsis : The riveting Cornwall saga continues with the story of Lucie Lansdon, the sole witness to a horrifying crime much too close to home . . . After her father is murdered, Lucie Lansdon’s eyewitness testimony sends a fanatical Irish terrorist to the gallows. Fate claims another victim when Lucie receives news that her fiancé has died in Africa. Reeling from the deaths of the two men she loved most, and convinced that her life is cursed, Lucie finally finds happiness when she marries the gentle Roland Fitzgerald. But her domestic life with Roland and his sister is not all it should be. Someone is watching—and waiting to carry out a cunningly orchestrated plan of retribution. As Lucie’s life is threatened and she begins to doubt her sanity, she’s visited by someone she believed lost to her forever. On the verge of uncovering the truth about a long-ago night, she places her trust in the wrong person.
📝The Crisis Book Synopsis : The Crisis, founded by W.E.B. Du Bois as the official publication of the NAACP, is a journal of civil rights, history, politics, and culture and seeks to educate and challenge its readers about issues that continue to plague African Americans and other communities of color. For nearly 100 years, The Crisis has been the magazine of opinion and thought leaders, decision makers, peacemakers and justice seekers. It has chronicled, informed, educated, entertained and, in many instances, set the economic, political and social agenda for our nation and its multi-ethnic citizens.
📒The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable ✍ Eric Lybeck
📝The Black Swan the Impact of the Highly Improbable Book Synopsis : One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.
📒The Black Swan Event ✍ Matthew J Messina
📝The Black Swan Event Book Synopsis : After gaining fame on the reality show The Dental Apprentice, Dr. Michael Murphy settled down to practice as the clinical director of the Washington Center for Esthetic and Restorative Excellence, Murph expects peace and quiet in DC, but his plans are quickly altered. Together with his girlfriend, archeologist Carli Chamoun, they are invited to attend a State Dinner at the White House in honor of the new President, Franklin Buchanan, and his VP, Murph’s old friend, Brooks Borlon. At the conclusion of the dinner, Murph and Carli are approached by a Secret Service Agent with the polite request that they join the President in the private quarters of the White House. It’s an offer that they can’t refuse. Arriving on the second floor residence, they find the President in excruciating pain, swearing a blue streak. After dinner, Frank Buchanan had retired to the Treaty Room to watch a baseball game, but an un-popped popcorn kernel had ruined his evening. It only took a few seconds for Murph to determine that the President had fractured a molar in half and that the only to relieve the pain was to take out the tooth. Murph and Carli bring the President and his personal protection detail to the dental clinic. After taking the necessary x-rays, Murph numbs the President up, relieving the pain. As he extracts the broken tooth, Murph makes a startling discovery. The molar extracted from the President has a peculiar pink cast to the enamel. Murph knows that only one thing causes pink-tooth . . . a root canal done using the sterilizing agent resorcinol. The only problem is that resorcinol is banned in the US and is used exclusively by dentists in . . . Russia. Murph and Carli are left with the burning question; If you suspect that the most powerful man in the world is not who he says he is, whom do you tell? Faced with the dilemma, Murph and Carli decide that they must solve the mystery themselves. Their quest leads them on a race around the world, from DC to Rome to Israel, and back to Murph’s hometown of Cleveland, Ohio. As they reveal more of the plot, a shocking plan becomes clear, with a goal so diabolical that it sits outside the realm of conventional wisdom. With the peace and stability of the world hanging in the balance, Murph and Carli must unravel the mystery in time to prevent a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. In The Black Swan Event, Matthew Messina weaves a clever, fast-paced thriller. Treating readers to taut suspense, Messina skillfully blends historical events with entertaining fiction, creating a fresh new hero in Mike Murphy. And if you think dentists lead boring lives, then you’ve never met Murph. Smart and athletic, the former Jr. Olympic volleyball champion, Mike Murphy DDS, shatters all stereotypes by charging at the face of danger to solve the mystery and heroically protect his friends and the woman he loves. It’s all in a day’s work for the most interesting dentist in the world!
📒The Double ✍ Fyodor Dostoyevsky
📝The Double Book Synopsis : Most significant of the Russian novelist's early stories (1846) offers a straight-faced treatment of a hallucinatory theme. Golyadkin senior is a powerless target of persecution by Golyadkin junior, his double in almost every respect. Familiar Dostoyevskan themes of helplessness, victimization, scandal — beautifully handled in this small masterpiece.
📒House Black Swan Theory ✍ Steven Holl
📝House Black Swan Theory Book Synopsis : "Steven Holl is known for an architecture that considers place, time, and the senses of the viewer. This philosophy has created some of the richest and most celebrated buildings of the past several decades. In Holl's own poetic voice, House describes fifteen residences (built and unbuilt) that give insight into the source of his unique architectural perspective, including his most current along with his best-known houses from the recent past. Ordered according to scale (largest to smallest), the houses in this book span the globe, ranging from a secluded location in Hawaii to the Catskill Mountains of New York, to Martha's Vineyard, to The Hague in the Netherlands. Through Holl's attempt to build into and with the site, these houses enhance and reveal the unique qualities of their locations. Holl inverts the usual universal-to-specific order by working from the specific toward the universal. By presenting a selection of his houses, Steven Holl suggests a "black swan" theory for architecture - mutable and unpredictable." --Book Jacket.