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📒Irrational Exuberance ✍ Robert J. Shiller
📝Irrational Exuberance Book Synopsis : In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
📒Irrational Exuberance Reconsidered ✍ Mathias Külpmann
📝Irrational Exuberance Reconsidered Book Synopsis : Mathias Külpmann presents a framework to evaluate whether the stock market is in line with underlying fundamentals. The new and revised edition offers an up to date introduction to the controversy between rational asset pricing and behavioural finance. Empirical evidence of stock market overreaction are investigated within the paradigms of rational asset pricing and behavioural finance. Although this monograph will not promise the reader to become a millionaire, it offers a road to obtain a deeper understanding of the forces which drive stock returns. It should be of interest to anyone interested in what drives performance in the stock market.
📒Irrational Exuberance In The U S Housing Market ✍ Christopher W. Crowe
📝Irrational Exuberance in the U S Housing Market Book Synopsis : The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals'' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that ''end times'' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
📒Irrational Exuberance ✍ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
📝Irrational Exuberance Book Synopsis :
📒Beauty Contests And Irrational Exuberance ✍ George-Marios Angeletos
📝Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance Book Synopsis : The arrival of new, unfamiliar, investment opportunities is often associated with "exuberant" movements in asset prices and real economic activity. During these episodes of high uncertainty, financial markets look at the real sector for signals about the profitability of the new investment opportunities, and vice versa. In this paper, we study how such information spillovers impact the incentives that agents face when making their real economic decisions. On the positive front, we find that the sensitivity of equilibrium outcomes to noise and to higher-order uncertainty is amplified, exacerbating the disconnect from fundamentals. On the normative front, we find that these effects are symptoms of constrained inefficiency; we then identify policies that can improve welfare without requiring the government to have any informational advantage vis-a-vis the market. At the heart of these results is a distortion that induces a conventional neoclassical economy to behave as a Keynesian "beauty contest" and to exhibit fluctuations that may look like "irrational exuberance" to an outside observer. Keywords: mispricing, heterogeneous information, information-driven complementarities, volatility, inefficiency, beauty contests. JEL Classifications: D82, E20, E44, G10, G14.
📝Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance A Neoclassical Approach Book Synopsis :
📝Financial Fragility with Rational and Irrational Exuberance Book Synopsis : The article discusses economic financial structures and investment forecasting.
📝Does March Madness Lead to Irrational Exuberance in the NBA Draft High Value Employee Selection Decisions and Decision Making Bias Book Synopsis :
📝A Corrective to the Irrational Exuberance of Greenspan Market Ideology the Legacy of Suehiro Izutaro 1888 1951 Book Synopsis :
📒What I Learned From Frogs In Texas ✍ Jim Carroll
📝What I Learned from Frogs in Texas Book Synopsis : "If they don't get off that road, there is going to be a big problem and it's going to be ugly!" With that quirky observation of a group of frogs in Texas , Jim Carroll captures the essence of the challenge faced by organizations today.We live in an era of unprecedented, relentless, rapid change. The emergence of China as a superpower; hyper-innovation and business market turmoil; constant career change and skills specialization; changing relationships and rapid scientific advance. Competition is changing over-night, and product lifecycles last for just a few months at best. Permanence has been torn asunder.We are in a time that demands a new agility and flexibility: leaders must have the skill and insight to prepare for a future that is rushing at them faster than ever before.Jim Carroll neatly and concisely examines these issues, and provides concrete guidance on how to turn these challenges into opportunity. You'll find guidance on: The major trends that will impact you in the years to come, and the challenges and opportunities that will present themselves How to move from a culture of aggressive indecision to one that is forward thinking and decisive How to instill an innovative culture within your organization Key leadership skills for the future A performance oriented focus in which people are encouraged to turn new challenges into opportunities, rather than viewing change as a threat to be feared